Payrolls Fall More Than Forecast, Unemployment Rises

Employers in the U.S. cut 467,000 jobs in June, the unemployment rate rose and hourly earnings stagnated, offering little evidence the Obama administration’s stimulus package is shoring up the labor market.

The payroll decline was more than forecast and followed a 322,000 drop in May, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 9.5 percent, the highest since August 1983, from 9.4 percent.

Unemployment is projected to keep rising for the rest of the year just as the income boost from the stimulus package fades, undermining prospects for a sustained rebound in household purchases, analysts said. As companies from General Motors Corp. to Kimberly-Clark Corp. cut costs, the lack of jobs will restrain growth.

“This will be another jobless recovery,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We may get positive economic growth driven largely by federal spending, but people on the street will say, ‘Where are the jobs?’”

Stocks slid after the report, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 2.2 percent to 903.43 at 10:16 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, sending yields on benchmark 10-year notes to 3.512 percent from 3.538 percent late yesterday.

Unemployment Claims

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell in line with forecasts, Labor also said, indicating firings remain elevated. Initial jobless claims dropped by 16,000 to 614,000 in the week ended June 27, from a revised 630,000 the week before. Full Story........

Better times ahead for national trucking industry?

A national trucking economist believes the worst might be in the rear-view mirror of the trucking industry.

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was up 3.2% in May, the first increase since February. Fort Smith-based ABF Freight System saw its first-quarter tonnage drop 15.7% compared to the first quarter of 2008. Its second-quarter tonnage through mid-May is down 17%, according to company spokesman David Humphrey.

Trucking, according to ATA, serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 69% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 10.2 billion tons of freight in 2008.



However, May’s increase wasn’t large enough to offset the March through April cumulative reduction of 6.7%, noted the ATA statement. Compared with May 2008, tonnage contracted 11%, which was the best year-over-year result in three months. Despite the improvement from April’s 13.2% plunge, May’s decrease is still historically large.

“I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, but I just don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight transportation is ready to explode,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in the statement. “The consumer is still facing too many headwinds, including employment losses, tight credit, rising fuel prices, and falling home values, to name a few, that will make it very difficult for household spending to jump in the near term.”
Costello also noted that he doesn’t expect tonnage to deteriorate much further and that any growth in tonnage over the next few months is likely to be modest.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said the month-to-month improvement was encouraging, but cautioned that tonnage is unlikely to surge anytime soon.

Donald Broughton, a trucking sector analyst with Avondale Partners, was cited in a recent Associated Press report as saying more than 3,000 trucking companies went out of business in 2008, which removed about seven of 100 trucks off the roads. He said about 480 trucking companies went out of business during the first quarter of 2009, which is less than 1% of the industry’s freight-hauling capacity and leaves too much capacity competing for the lackluster demand.

As trucking goes, so goes the economy

Looking for signs of economic recovery? Try counting the number of trucks on the road.

Trucks carry almost all the manufactured and retail goods in the country - from refrigerators to lumber, detergents to toys. Many economists gauge how fast assembly lines are running, and how much consumers are buying, by the volume of goods hauled by trucks. But the most recent earnings reports show trucks are not carrying enough yet to indicate recovery is near.

Slow consumer spending and stalled manufacturing activity took its toll on truckers in the first three months of the year. Nearly all major trucking companies reported lower first-quarter revenue and falling profits as the recession continued and shipping demand slid. Many cut back their fleets because of soft demand. Werner Enterprises Inc., for example, said it trimmed an additional 4 percent of its fleet of over 8,000 trucks in the first quarter. Many companies said more cuts will come.

Full Story.......

Arkansas Best slips to loss in Q1

Transportation holding company Arkansas Best Corp. reported a loss in its first quarter, reflecting significantly lower freight levels, hurt by poor economy, and a very competitive pricing environment.

For quarter, the company posted a net loss of $18.16 million or $0.73 per share, compared to a net income of $8.54 million or $0.34 per share last year. The company noted that the quarterly results included $0.15 per share costs from the ABF RPM initiative compared to $0.10 per share in the preceding year.

Quarterly operating revenues fell to $339.68 million, a per-day decrease of 22.9%, from $447.51 million in the same quarter a year ago. Operating loss was $28.60 million, versus operating income of $13.15 million in the prior year. Interest and dividend income plunged to $930 thousands from $1.82 million in the previous year.

ABF Freight System, Inc., the largest subsidiary of Arkansas Best, generated revenues of $323.11 million, lower than last year's $427.75 million. Total billed revenue per hundredweight was $23.85, a decrease of 9.4%, compared to $26.32 in the prior year. The decline was mainly due to the steep decline in fuel surcharge compared to the first quarter of 2008. Other revenues and eliminations were $16.56 million, in comparison with $19.76 million in the preceding year.

Private sector loses 250,000 jobs

The U.S. economy shed a quarter-million private-sector jobs in November, according to a payroll processor's report that was worse than economists expected.

Non-farm private employment fell by 250,000 jobs from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report.

The report was expected to show a decline of 200,000 jobs in November, according to a consensus of economist projections compiled by Briefing.com.

"It's impossible to find any ray of light here," said ADP spokesman Joel Prakken in a conference call with reporters. "All of the major industries that we record had declines in employment."

The goods-producing sector lost 158,000 jobs last month, its 24th consecutive month of decline, according to the report. This includes 118,000 positions in manufacturing and 44,000 construction jobs.

The service industry shed 92,000 jobs, its second month of losses since the ADP reports began tracking employment in 2002.

Medium-sized businesses, with between 50 and 499 workers, were the hardest-hit part of the economy, hemorrhaging 130,000 jobs last month. Large businesses, with at least 500 workers, lost 41,000 jobs. Small businesses, with less than 50 workers, lost 79,000 positions.

Prakken said he expected to see "a string of very weak employment reports" going forward. He added that "declines in employment between 300,000 and 500,000 in the coming months would not surprise me."

The ADP also revised its reading for October, to a loss of 179,000 jobs from the previously reported loss of 157,000.